AI Disruption Risk Assessment

"When I’m on the hunt for a new venture, there’s now an AI dimension to my lens. The questions I compile include the following: How will this industry be disrupted by advances in AI? How soon could that happen? What are the risks and opportunities in that disruption? For example, I looked at doing a roll-up of accounting firms, but there’s a chance that accountants will be replaced by generative AI over the next decade. I could build up a big accounting business over the next few years and see it suddenly go into a black hole because people start using AI to close their books."

"I’ve decided against investing in some financial services firms for similar reasons—AI could make them less profitable. I don’t think we’ll need a human insurance broker in ten years. Also, at some point in the not-too-distant future, I can see AI replacing much, if not most, of what paralegals and even lawyers do. Many jobs in journalism, advertising, and other communications are likely to become obsolete—and, ironically, AI also puts tech jobs at risk, including coding."

"Artificial intelligence is emerging as the central determining factor in whether businesses and entire industries will collapse or prosper. In fact, AI is developing so rapidly no one knows what it will be capable of in even six months, including the people programming the models. What’s clear is that AI’s impact will eventually exceed anything we can imagine. Many industries got caught off guard by the rise of e-commerce, social…"