Risk Doctrine1 book · 2 highlights

Projections as Dressed-Up Delusion

Books Teaching This Pattern

Evidence

Charlie Munger by Tren Griffin — book cover

Charlie Munger

Tren Griffin · 2 highlights

  1. “[Projections] are put together by people who have an interest in a particular outcome, have a subconscious bias, and its apparent precision makes it fallacious. They remind me of Mark Twain’s saying, “A mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar.” Projections in America are often a lie, although not an intentional one, but the worst kind because the forecaster often believes them himself.”

  2. “I don’t let others do projections for me, because I don’t like throwing up on the desk.”

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