Secular Tailwinds Validation

"Identifying growth trends is one thing; verifying that they have staying power is something else entirely. When I’m assessing an industry for long-term, secular tailwinds, I don’t rely on gut feelings or pitch decks—I go deep. That means gathering an enormous amount of data, analyzing it from every angle, and pressure-testing it with people who have spent decades in the industry in various roles. I want to know not just whether the TAM is growing but why it’s growing, how sustainable that growth is, and what could derail it over the next…"

"Does the industry I’m contemplating have favorable socioeconomic and regulatory factors, and is its growth being driven by consistent demand? The last thing I want to do is catch the top of a fad. If the growth is real and I’ve validated it from every possible angle, only then do I start getting serious. The choice of an industry plants a flag in the ground for investors and other stakeholders, so I make sure I get it right."

"What are the industry’s sustainable tailwinds? If it’s already a growing industry, I want to see a healthy expansion rate before I enter because one company on its own, except in rare cases, can’t force faster growth. An environment of organic growth means I can show up Monday morning at seven o’clock and already have built-in momentum: more customers, higher demand, better pricing power. If an industry is stagnant or shrinking, no amount of clever M&A or…"