Seventy Percent Victory Threshold

"But if you dawdle waiting for a “ninety percent chance of winning,” competitors could get ahead, and you would be left trailing. Therefore, he suggests one should take the plunge when confident of a “seventy percent chance of victory.”"

"However, in reality, there is never a battle guaranteed to be won. The issue is probability. Masayoshi Son warns, “Don’t gamble on a fifty-fifty chance,” as it means the probability of winning and losing is equal."

"“Seven” is the magic number that indicates “the optimal timing to make a move in a game is when a 70% chance of victory is seen.” When Oda Nobunaga, Ryoma Sakamoto, and Eiichi Shibusawa sensed “victory,” they took “bold actions” as if driven by it. Oda Nobunaga made a significant shift with the Battle of Okehazama, where he blocked the path of Imagawa Yoshimoto aiming for Kyoto, Ryoma Sakamoto with his two defections, and Eiichi Shibusawa when he resigned from the Ministry of Finance at the request of the Meiji government to live as an entrepreneur establishing the First National Bank."