U.S.
Strategic Concepts & Mechanics
Primary Evidence
"Governments can also influence the prices of agricultural commodities and differentials between the prices of different origins. At the time of writing, the trade dispute between China and the U.S. has increased the price of Brazilian soybeans relative to the price of U.S. beans. Events can also impact price. For example, the outbreak of African Swine Fever in China has reduced Chinese demand for animal feed and had a significant impact on the world’s import demand for soybeans. However, the most important factor that affects the supply and demand of a commodity is the price of the commodity itself, both in outright terms and relative to alternative, competing crops. This leads to a circular situation where the price of a certain commodity will depend on its supply and demand, while the supply and demand depend, at least partially, on its price. This is a feedback loop with a time lag; the length of that time lag depends on which commodity you are discussing."
"Foreign investors were the biggest losers in U.S. rail projects. The British, in particular, couldn't resist bankrolling the emerging U.S. market in the mid-1800s, just as Americans couldn't resist bankrolling emerging Asian markets in the late 1900s. Much British capital was lost in what turned out to be a gigantic, albeit unintended, charitable contribution to U.S. track laying and road building. Heed it well, ye global capitalists! Fast growth in the latest emerging phenom doesn't necessarily mean fat profits for foreign enthusiasts. The U.S. railroads proved that."
"But in my constitution, if the financial numbers fail to support the big bet, it is time to make a smaller one instead. This cautious, but calculated mindset would define my dealmaking for the next thirty years or more. We started building out TCI when I went there in 1973 and vastly accelerated our expansion efforts in 1979. We grew mainly through acquisitions, and by 1982, nearly ten years after I arrived, TCI was the largest cable provider in the U.S., with 2.5 million subscriber homes. And that was just the start, though I am unsure we knew this at the time. By one count, we acquired 482 companies from 1973 to 1989: a rate of one new deal every two weeks."
"BUT OVERVALUATION IS NOT ENOUGH. Some thought should be given to the general market and the characteristics of the moment … •The shares should be close to an all time high and beginning to drift down. The drifting down is probably a better working model as an all time high can keep on trucking. •There should be the potential for an earnings disappointment. For example in the U.S., when the dollar is strong there is an automatic negative effect on U.S. Internationals. This, of course, applies to all currencies wherever there are businesses that are export led. •Lots of debt makes a short seller’s job easier. •Look out for aggressive accounting, i.e., lots of capitalized expenses. •A whiff of fraud is useful. Check the backgrounds of the board and the management."