Mental Model1 book · 4 highlights

Keep Drawing Until the Prize Appears

Books Teaching This Pattern

Evidence

  1. “The “lottery box strategy” behind investing in Yahoo! The “lottery box strategy” is actually extremely simple! Never give up before winning, that’s all. For example, you attend a cultural festival and encounter a lottery game, costing 100 yen per draw. You win a game console if you hit the jackpot, but you leave empty-handed if you don’t. You spend 100 yen to draw once, but unfortunately, you don’t win, and you don’t have extra money to try again. If it ends here, your goal of “winning a game console” is not achieved and you might complain: “What bad luck!” But, if a generous relative happened to pass by and said: “I’ll give you money so you can keep drawing until you win!” If the relative gives you 1,000 yen or 2,000 yen, you can draw 10 times, 20 times, or even more. If the game is fair, you’ll surely win eventually.”

  2. ““Keep drawing until you win!” By now, you might not find anything special, but in fact, this strategy is based on a business theory called “real options.””

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